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The Power Of Bitcoin Doubling Rates

7

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Introduction

When you believe in log scale and zoom out, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) (COIN) (OTCQX:GBTC) makes a great deal of sense. Today, we’re going to take a look at the history of 2x boosts in the Bitcoin network, concentrating on 3 locations: hash power, overall deals, and the cost. I will reveal that the development of the Bitcoin network is not strange, however rather somewhat foreseeable; and discuss how you can personally take advantage of participating in this transformation.

Hash Rate

I took an information sample every 48 hours of the Bitcoin hash rate in regards to TH/s. This information set returns to August of 2010 and faces October 2018 This information is openly offered to anybody on Blockchain.com This information set is one representation of the development of the Bitcoin network, taking a look at the hash power of the miners, which contend to produce brand-new Bitcoin obstructs. In this procedure, the miners gather costs and are rewarded with brand-new Bitcoins.

Becoming a Bitcoin miner utilized to be reasonably basic. Anyone might simply link their computer systems to the network and be mining with their CPU immediately. However, in time, this has actually progressed into an enormously competitive international arms race. Today, a financial investment of $100 M would be needed to manage even 1% of this market.

Investments of this scale need commercial facilities, a group of electrical engineers, land, power, security, brain power, and the list goes on. Bitcoin mining now needs major preparation and CAPEX. So, when you consider this information you will see, bear in mind that billions of dollars have actually been invested into Bitcoin mining facilities, which all this represents an enormous vote of self-confidence in Bitcoin’s future potential customers.

RawData

 

Date HashPower DoublingDays
8/18/2010 0.003383573 N/A
9/17/2010 0.007654543 30
10/17/2010 0.019317607 30
11/ 8/2010 0.04011337 22
11/30/2010 0.084329546 22
1/27/2011 0.175078626 58
2/18/2011 0.391485055 22
4/13/2011 0.822778259 54
5/15/2011 1.784148286 32
5/27/2011 4.280335327 12
6/16/2011 8.762322509 20
7/30/2012 1873004176 410
3/11/2013 4038586263 224
5/6/2013 8164592348 56
6/21/2013 1663152356 46
8/6/2013 351314048 46
9/1/2013 7255966144 26
9/25/2013 1583138305 24
10/25/2013 3194158224 30
12/ 6/2013 7419911319 42
1/13/2014 1805864887 38
3/22/2014 3718518827 68
5/13/2014 7481797102 52
7/30/2014 1629938733 78
12/25/2014 3314853001 148
12/10/2015 7707113338 350
5/22/2016 1776788547 164
2/24/2017 3637273773 278
8/5/2017 7568850421 162
12/29/2017 1536357541 146
4/30/2018 3129024177 122

 

DataSummary

 

AverageDoubling Days 937
LongestDoubling Gap 410
LongestDoubling Gap Date 7/30/2012
Number of Doublings 30

 

Chart

 

As you can see, the hash power of the Bitcoin network has actually doubled 30 times because August of 2010, and despite the fact that the speed of doubling has actually been slower just recently, this is to be anticipated. After all, it takes a great deal of energy and time to develop out an industrial-scale mining operation.

Total Transactions

Every time somebody sends out a deal over the Bitcoin network, it gets tape-recorded in the blockchain. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin is being utilized, the overall variety of deals grows. However, if development in the variety of users, or development in a typical user’s activity levels were to drop off, then we would see overall Bitcoin deals flat-line.

I took a comparable information set from Blockchain com and did the very same thing similar to the hash power. Starting with the very same time, August 18 th, 2010, I counted the variety of times the overall deals doubled. Each time this took place, I took down the date, and put all those occasions into a spreadsheet.

These deals, by the method, do not count trades done on exchanges. These are just deals that take place on the blockchain.

RawData

 

Date TotalTransactions DoublingDays
8/18/2010 105185 N/A
12/20/2010 211461 124
4/19/2011 423104 120
6/24/2011 846767 66
10/16/2011 1698515 114
5/23/2012 3399639 220
9/6/2012 6828172 106
3/3/2013 13753645 178
11/22/2013 27611908 264
12/29/2014 55293882 402
2/18/2016 110926655 416
5/13/2017 222207723 450

 

DataSummary

 

AverageDoubling Days 2236
LongestDoubling Gap 450
LongestDoubling Date 5/13/2017
Number of Doublings 11

 

Note that the longest doubling duration will be the next one, however that hasn’t finished yet, so the longest on record ended on May 13 th, 2017.

Chart

bitcoin transactions log log

 

What we’re seeing here is that the variety of Bitcoin deals charts out in something that appears like log (red line drawn by me for focus). Even though we have less doublings than with the hash rate, it’s clear that a pattern is emerging.

BitcoinPrice

Now that the table is set, let’s start the banquet.

I duplicated the precise very same procedure with the Bitcoin cost that I explained above for overall deals and hash rate. This was the outcome.

RawData

 

Date Price DoublingDays
8/18/2010 $ 0.07 N/A
9/15/2010 $ 0.18 28
11/ 8/2010 $ 0.37 54
2/2/2011 $ 0.84 86
4/25/2011 $ 1.70 82
5/1/2011 $ 4.09 6
5/13/2011 $ 8.45 12
6/4/2011 $ 17.41 22
6/10/2011 $ 35.00 6
3/21/2013 $ 73.80 650
4/8/2013 $ 184.00 18
11/14/2013 $ 416.50 220
11/24/2013 $ 833.16 10
5/9/2017 $ 1,72128 1262
8/11/2017 $ 3,63251 94
11/15/2017 $ 7,30143 96
12/ 7/2017 $ 16,50197 22

 

DataSummary

 

AverageDoubling Days 1668
LongestDoubling Gap 1262
LongestDoubling Date 5/9/2017
Number of Doublings 16

 

Chart

 

It’s clear that the cost doublings been available in bursts, a lot more so than those from the hash rate or overall deal. But, once again we see a familiar pattern. The pattern is up, over an extended period of time.

Conclusion

I have stated it prior to and I’ll state it once again, there’s a strong relationship in between hash rate, overall deals and the cost. In case you came here to publish in the remark area something routine like “correlation isn’t causation,” let me set your mind at ease. The just thing I’m stating is that some sort of relationship exists, however it’s a strong one. The finest I can do to discuss this phenomenon is that the quantity of hash power and the overall deals relate to real users, and it’s those users that drive the cost action.

How lots of people operate in the Bitcoin mining market? We do not understand. How lots of Bitcoin users exist? We do not understand. What we do understand is that individuals leave tracks, and those we can count. True, one animal might leave lots of tracks, however there’s an indisputable relationship in between animals and the tracks that get left in precisely the very same method that Bitcoin users leave deals and miners leave records of their hash power contributions.

If my theory is true, then it makes ideal sense that increased competitors for Bitcoin, which has a restricted supply, needs to press the cost up. Unless the entire project fails (which I will admit is possible), the only possible result is that the cost increases. This describes why high levels of connection exist in between the hash rate, overall deals and the cost of Bitcoin; which is the basis for the Bitcoin Value Indicator.

Bitcoin’s hash rate has actually doubled in the past, 30 times, and it is most likely to double once again. Bitcoin’s overall deals have actually doubled in the past, 11 times, and they are most likely to double once again. Bitcoin’s cost has actually doubled in the past, 16 times, and it is most likely to double once again.

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