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The First Test of the Uptrend

The main US stock indices entered a crucial zone during the overnight session that we have been monitoring throughout the last two weeks, as the line-in-the-sand zone for the correction. Despite that, the question regarding the fate of the move has been postponed for next week, as the S&P 500 and the Dow failed to clearly rally above the zone, while the Nasdaq showed relative weakness after leading the market higher during the bounce.

Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2731 -0.08 %
DAX 12,451 0.86%
WTI Crude Oil 61.64 0.31%
GOLD 1351.00 -0.32%
Bitcoin 10030 -0.52%
EUR/USD 1.2405 -0.78%

 

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We are still leaning on the side of the bears regarding the short-term outcome, as the technical damage of the Volatility-Armageddon seems bigger than what a straight-line recovery would suggest. That said, the fundamental news was great today (not counting the latest developments in the Russia-Gate), as the US housing market sent positive signals amid the rising yields, while the UOM Consumer Sentiment Index also beat expectations.

On an interesting note, the rise in yields paused, despite the positive economic news, and in this perverse world that led to a strong rebound in the Dollar, right after the new multi-year highs in the EUR/USD pair during the overnight session.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Euros weakness helped equities of the old continent is finally showing some relative strength, and the same goes for Japan, as the oversold readings in the USD/JPY pair that we noted also led to a rebound, back above the 106 level. While the bounce slightly helped the negatively diverging benchmarks, the clear technical weakness remains another bearish sign for the coming weeks.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar’s bounce pushed the price of gold lower too after the encouraging rally, but the Shiny Metal remains just a tad below its rally high, which is commendable, given the improving risk-sentiment throughout the week, even as another short-term correction is possible here. Crude oil enjoyed another positive day, although it remains well below its recent highs, just as the commodity-related risk-on currencies, where we already noted the relative weakness yesterday. That also adds to the cautious outlook for equities even in the face of the 5/5 positive days this week.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The crypto market continued to show robustness amid the hectic trends in traditional assets, and today’s meager correction adds to the bullish signs that emerged last week and remained with investors throughout this week. While not everything is rosy, with still several coins in dominant downtrends, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, there is clear leadership behind the rally, and if the coming short-term pullbacks remain in-line with today’s move, bulls should have their hopes up

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

What would change the bullish posture is a return to the “everything moves together with high volatility and bearish volume” regime of the preceding steep sell-off, but, for now, that seems unlikely, and a quiet consolidation this weekend would be just what the doctor ordered for the segment.

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Written by Ravi Gupat

Ravi grew up in India and graduated in Economics. He is a serial entrepreneur who has founded and exited several companies in tech and media over the past 15 years. He is also an early stage investor and advisor in various blockchain-based companies.

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