The main event of the coming year for the crypto community is Bitcoin Halving, a decrease in the block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. It is logical that with a decrease in the block reward, the value of Bitcoin should increase – this is its main idea, the reason why BTC grows in price annually. The previous halving was in July 2016, and it led the market to huge growth. What will happen with the next halving?
It is impossible to accurately predict the date of the third halving because it depends only on the mining power (hash rate), but it is now clear that it will be in May 2020. You can compare the current situation with the previous halving (in 2012 and 2016) for an infinitely long time, but it seems to me that this is incorrect.
First of all, it is foolish to compare the cryptocurrency market in 2020 with the cryptocurrency market in 2016, and especially in 2012. In 2012, almost no one knew about $BTC, in 2016 it was also far from media. Now a huge mass of traders, amateurs and housewives know about halving and its possible consequences. Do you still think that God loves a trinity and Bitcoin will fly off to the $ 1million in 2020-2021? All people cannot get rich at the same time, so I don’t believe in such an option.
It is much more logical to compare the bitcoin halving with the Litecoin halving, which was a week ago, on the 5th of August. Litecoin is a very large altcoin with a large investor base, so everyone knew about its halving. Let’s put a Litecoin chart over the past 7 months on a bitcoin chart – and we will see a much more logical picture than with the Bitcoin 2016 chart.
The main growth will take place before the halving – very logical because everyone wants to buy an asset before halving. The wave of purchases turns out to be too huge – $LTC grew up in 7 times, which is not very adequate in comparison with 50% reduction in the block reward. Then, a wave of sales dumps Litecoin to $90 – $100. This option is much better for BTC than its past halvings. Now let’s deal with the technical part.
Let’s take a look at the bottom of the $LTCUSD chart projection. What is the most important thing I see? Bitcoin has very strong support at the $9000 level. Then we can see an organical growth up to $12100 resistance and breakout through one. Next, the market should face a resistances at the $14000 level and break it with strong upward impulse. Above this level, more likely, are located a lot of stop losses.
What about higher levels? Hope you understand that it makes no sense to try to analyze them because the price wasn’t being there for a long time and we have no information about this area. The only thing we can clearly see is a new high which is located at the $63000 point. Why $63k? Because it is X7 from the $9000 bottom. Therefore we got a picture with good correlation between important levels.