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Bitcoin: To The Moon And Back

ToThe Moon and Back

I would fly you to the moon and back. If you’ll be, if you’ll be my infant *I’ve got a ticket for a world where we belong. So would you be my infant *?

Source/Lyrics: Savage Garden – “To The Moon & Back”

*Crypto(Author’s edition)

It was just 25 days earlier when we composed that “The Lower It Goes, The Safer It Gets“. While this is constantly real, for any possession whatsoever, we get far more of the previous (lower) than of the latter (much safer).

It’s obvious that Bitcoin (BTC-USD, COIN, OTCQX:GBTC) isn’t – and never ever been – appropriate for the fainthearted.

At the present cost of ~$ 3,400, we are discussing an 83% decrease from the peak cost of $19,891 Few days ago we have actually touched the 52- week low at $3,215

During the previous 7 years (2011-2017 inclusive), there was just one year in which Bitcoin declined – 2014 – when the cost dropped 58%.

As it stands now, unless an incredible shift takes place till year-end, 2018 will decrease as the worst year for cryptocurrencies in (their fairly brief) history.

Cryptocurrencies – 2018 Data

(Sorted by % Below All-TimeHigh, from worst to finest)

You understand what? Suddenly, -83% off peak and/or -71% overall return in 2018 do not look that bad …

Cryptocurrencies – Total Market

The market cap of the top 20 cryptocurrencies has actually diminished by no less than 82%. It was over $512 B at the end of 2017, and it’s lower than $90 B now.

To put this in point of view, a change/loss of $422 B is not too far of the whole market cap of Berkshire Hathaway,Inc (BRK.A, BRK.B). I question whether and at what number the 2 market caps may fulfill …

WithBerkshire holding 24% of its liquid invested portfolio in a single stock, even if that stock is called Apple (AAPL), I can’t rule this out.

TheGreenback Effect

The United States Dollar (UUP, USDU) is greater versus every significant worldwide currency in 2018 As such, it’s not surprising that to see that Bitcoin weak point is quite connected with the Greenback worldwide strength.

Bitcoin in the Mirror of History

SoBitcoin is i) striking a 16- month low, ii) down 83% from its peak last December, and iii) down 68% over the previous year, its worst Y/Y return because February 2015.

Yet, it’s intriguing to see how these numbers compare to its trading history. Here are the biggest drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history:

  1. September2010 to October 2010: -941% ($ 0.17 to $.01)
  2. June2011 to November 2011: -938% ($32 to $1.99)
  3. November2013 to January 2015: -854% ($ 1,166 to $170)
  4. December2017 to Today: -838% ($19,891 to $3,215)
  5. April2013 to July 2013: -764% ($266 to $63)

In the last 3 months of 2017, Bitcoin struck a brand-new all-time high as soon as every 3 days, usually.

As of 12/12/2018, Bitcoin has actually gone 360 days – practically one complete year – without a brand-new high. To put that in point of view, the longest streak ever was 1,176 days (from December 2013 to February 2017), more than 3 complete years.

BitcoinInvestment Trust

And when things are rough for Bitcoin, they are as rough – if not even worse – for the Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTCQX:GBTC).

Just like Bitcoin, GBTC likewise strikes a 16- month low. Unlike Bitcoin, it’s now down 89% from its peak last December (versus “only” 83% for Bitcoin itself).

I think that’s (a minimum of partly) the power of management charges.

Volatility

It’s back! And no, I’m not describing Arnold Schwarzenegger here.

Recall that we were rather impressed/surprised when Bitcoin has turned into one of the least unstable possessions throughout October, when the world equity markets (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, IVV, VTI, VOO, VEA, EFA, IEFA, VWO) collapsed?

Well, forget it … The severe (and really uncommon) low volatility in Bitcoin did not last too long. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility over the past 30 days is now back to triple digits.

BottomLine

Bloomberg reports that “What is Bitcoin?” was the most browsed meaning in the United States and UK in 2018, according to Google Trends.

We began with Savage Garden’s “To The Moon & Back” tune, and we completed with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s most popular “I’ll Be Back” pledge.

The most pertinent, intriguing concern, now that Bitcoin currently measured up to the tune, can it likewise measure up to the pledge?

Technically speaking, Bitcoin has actually broken all the assistance levels it had throughout the previous year. There’s no genuine technical assistance here.

From the present fairly low levels, there’s a great factor to be bullish long-lasting. Nonetheless, next levels Bitcoin might fulfill quickly are $3,000, $2,600 and $1,800 -1,900

We now put a 70% possibility for Bitcoin to trade listed below $3,000 and a 50% possibility for it to trade as low as $2,600

While the $1,800 -1,900 level appears far, it’s not out of concern for 2019.

The Wheel of FORTUNE is among the most detailed services, covering all possession classes: commons, preferreds, bonds, alternatives, currencies, products, CEFs, and so on.

What do you think?

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Written by Ravi Gupat

Ravi grew up in India and graduated in Economics. He is a serial entrepreneur who has founded and exited several companies in tech and media over the past 15 years. He is also an early stage investor and advisor in various blockchain-based companies.

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