Bitcoin (BTC) is maintaining stability above the critical $4,000 price mark, after making an important breakout to the upside in the last day or so. The leading crypto has established itself, in the short term, above the February-March uptrend – and perhaps more importantly, is making inroads into the 2018 linear downtrend resistance zone.
Currently ranging sideways, Bitcoin price action has all the hallmarks of a bull flag. A move higher would retest the previous support/resistance (S/R) zone put in in late February, resting between $4,100-4,200.
However, a failure to break up again would not wreck the almost two-month-long positive Bitcoin narrative: Continued sideways consolidation will give altcoins runway for further gains (which have already been considerable, lately); and there remains a $100 cushion between the current BTC price and the local uptrend support (the green field, below).
A slightly longer view of the broad Bitcoin trend is an uptrend channel (below), intact since late February. A further Bitcoin push higher from here, according to this pattern, would yield a target price of about $4,130. Somehow breaking down out of this channel, Bitcoin would encounter several S/R zones to stop a capitulation all the way back down to the regional uptrend around $3,500. Even hitting this area would not be disastrous.
A view of Bitcoin’s daily chart shows us in the middle of three trends of varying gravity: The critical yearly (linear chart) downtrend, which has rebuffed Bitcoin all through 2018 (red field); the regional S/R zone surrounding $4k (purple); and the local uptrend support/channel that Bitcoin has respected for over a month. This confluence is pictured in the purple circle, below.
It is this chartist’s opinion that breaking the yearly downtrend – with any amount of force – is the most important event to watch right now, even if local price action is also exciting.