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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis July 26th, 2019

Has BTC/USD Finished Its Correction?

On April 2, 2019, the Bitcoin (BTC) price began an upward move. This was the beginning of an uptrend lasting more than 80 days. On June 26, it reached a high of $13,764. Since then, BTC has been decreasing.

How long will the downtrend continue? Keep reading below if you want to find out.

Bitcoin Price: Trends and Highlights for July 26

  • BTC/USD has been decreasing for the past 30 days.
  • The price has completed a five-wave uptrend.
  • BTC has found support above the 10-week moving average.
  • Weekly bearish divergence has developed in the RSI.

Time Periods

Beginning on April 2, it took the price 84 days for the BTC Price to reach the high on June 26.

Since reaching it, the price has been decreasing.

Today marks the 30th day the price has done so.

A look at fibonacci levels shows that the price has bounced around the 0.5 fib line.

However, the bounce failed to break important resistance levels and seems to have lost its power.

So it looks as if the current downtrend is likely to continue.

We will do an individual wave count to see if that is likely.

Wave Count

We are quite certain about the wave count in the uptrend. Beginning on April 2, BTC finished a five-wave Elliott formation.

However, the wave count for the downtrend is not yet clear.

In our first scenario, BTC has completed its A-B-C formation, and the uptrend is likely to continue.

In this case, it took the BTC price only 21 days to finish the entire A-B-C correction.

Due to the 84 day length of the uptrend, we do not believe this is very likely.

Furthermore, since there is more support at the 0.618 fib level, a retracement there seems more likely than the 0.5 one.

A look at the moving averages (MA) does not align with the first scenario.

A bearish cross has transpired between the 10- and 20-period MAs.

The price is facing very close resistance from the 10-day MA.

Furthermore, the 100-day MA is currently below $9000. The price has not yet reached it.

If it would, that would be a suitable place for the beginning of a reversal.

That gives us our second scenario.

Similarly, the price has finished the first two waves of the A-B-C correction.

However, the C wave will be extended, dividing into five subwaves.

Since the first wave was very long, and the third wave is never the longest, the 3-4-5 waves should all be short in length.

The C-wave should finish somewhere around $7500, inside a strong support area.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Time-Frame

The BTC price is analyzed at weekly time-frames alongside the RSI in the first graph and the 10- & 20-day moving averages in the second
A look at the weekly time-frame shows that there is very significant selling pressure above $12,000.
Bitcoin Price

This was evidenced by the long upper wicks during the end of July/beginning of June.

Once the price reached values below $10,000, it found support above the 10-week MA.

This created a long lower wick.

However, the current week’s candle has been eating at that support. A close below the 10-week MA would likely confirm that the downtrend is continuing.

A look at the RSI also supports this idea.

A bearish divergence has been developing since the price reached a high near $8000 at the end of May.

According to these indicators, it is more likely that the price will continue to decrease until it reached values between $7000 and $8000.

Summary

The BTC price has been correcting for the past 30 days.

According to our analysis, the correction will continue until the price reaches values of $7000-$8000.

Do you believe BTC will continue to decrease? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.


Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile. 

Images are courtesy of TradingView.

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Written by Ravi Gupat

Ravi grew up in India and graduated in Economics. He is a serial entrepreneur who has founded and exited several companies in tech and media over the past 15 years. He is also an early stage investor and advisor in various blockchain-based companies.

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